The Theoretical Ecology Lab Teas are designed to be informal meetings for members of the research groups of Simon Levin, Steve Pacala, Henry Horn, and Andy Dobson to give talks on their current research and receive feedback from their audience. The talks are usually 30 minutes, including the question and answer sessions, scheduled on Wednesdays at 2:30 PM. Additionally, other members of the Princeton University community and visitors are welcome to attend and to give presentations.
Talk schedules and email lists are
maintained by Juliet Pulliam and Duncan Menge. Please contact pulliam@princeton.edu
or dmenge@princeton.edu
to have your name added to the labtea email list so that you can
receive reminders about upcoming lab teas.
To view previous schedules and
summaries, go to:
Fall
2000 Spring
2001
Fall
2001 Spring
2002
Fall
2002 Spring
2003
Fall
2003
Spring
2004
Fall
2004
Wednesday, September 15, at 2:30 PM |
Drew Purves |
Wednesday, September 22, at 2:30
PM |
Nikolay
Strigul |
Wednesday, September 29, at 2:30 PM |
Adi Livnat |
Wednesday, October 6, at 2:30 PM |
Heather Leslie |
Wednesday, October 13, at 2:30 PM |
Nancy Dammann Davis |
Wednesday, October 20, at 2:30 PM |
Duncan Menge |
Wednesday, October 27, at 2:30 PM |
(Fall break) |
Wednesday, November 3, at 2:30 PM |
Parviez Hosseini |
Wednesday, November 10, at 2:30 PM |
Kiona Ogle |
Wednesday, November 17, at 2:30 PM |
Juan Keymer |
Wednesday, November 24, at 2:30 PM |
(Thanksgiving break) |
Wednesday,
December 1, at 2:30 PM |
Brian Fath - Towson
University |
Wednesday, December 8, at 2:30 PM |
Michael Raghib-Moreno |
Titles and abstracts (posted approximately one
week before the talk):
Michael Raghib-Moreno
An entropy approach to moment
closure in spatial ecology
Nontrivial spatial structure in plant populations and other sessile
organisms is commonly modelled via spatial point processes. The
dynamics of such processes is summarized in terms of a family
of statistics known in ecology as spatial moments. However, the
density-dependent interaction terms in these models imply that the
equation for the rate of change of the first moment (mean density)
depends on the second moment (pair density), which in turn depends on
the third moment, and so on. Further progress relies on obtaining an
expression for the third moment in terms of the first and second ones,
a
moment closure. Given that the
interactions used are typically pairwise additive,
most of the information about the process is carried by the first and
second order moments, with higher order ones contributing little. The
idea of "carried information" is quantified by the entropy, and
"contributing little" is approximated by the state of maximum
entropy.
We obtained a closure by maximisation of the entropy functional of the
underlying point process under the constraints of normalisation and
fixed first and second moments. The resulting closed system predicts
equilibrium densities remarkably well for clustered populations,
precisely where previous ad hoc closures show their limitations.
Brian Fath Network Mutualism: Positive
community-level relations in ecosystems
Direct energy transfers in ecosystems create reticulated structures
commonly called food webs. The relation or interaction type along each
direct pathway between pair-wise objects can be classified as (+, -) or
(-, +) depending on the net gain or loss experienced by each object. If
objects are not directly connected in the food web, then their direct
interaction is neutralism (0, 0). From this direct-only perspective, a
balance exists between the number of positive and negative relations in
the ecosystem. However, community-level relations arise from direct and
indirect pathways within a food web giving rise to the indirectly mediated
relations mutualism (+, +) and competition (-, -). Determination
of these
community-level relations requires a systemic or holistic approach.
Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) provides such a methodology to
investigate the relations resulting from the whole set of direct
transfers. This research demonstrates the methodology and shows three
important results from the analysis. First, all objects in the network
are connected either through their input and output environs and therefore
all objects influence and interact with the others in the web: There are
no null community-level relations. Second, the community-level relations
can and do differ from direct relations: What you see is not always what
you get. Third, due to the web of systemic interactions, community-level
relations usually have a greater occurrence of mutualism than competition
making them more positive than the direct relations that produced them:
This is the property called network mutualism. Juan Keymer The Chemotaxis network
Molecular networks are responsable for the behavior of cell's. In the
case
of unicellulor organisms, molecular networks coordinate the behavior are
their brains. E. Coli's chemotactic network is the best described
molecular network. Molecular Biology is moving towards the dynamic
modelling of such networks by building upon simple physical principles.
Kiona
Ogle Bayesian analysis of
vulnerability to hurricane damage and survival of
tropical trees
Hurricanes are critical to tropical forest dynamics in Puerto
Rico, which is characterized by the highest hurricane frequency of all
Caribbean islands. To enhance out understanding of the dynamics of
hurricane-driven forests, such as those in Puerto Rico, we are applying a
Bayesian hierarchical approach to simultaneously estimate the factors that
determine the degree of damage to an individual tree. Physiological
tradeoffs generate a positive relationship between resistance to hurricane
damage and shade tolerance, so we are focusing on a subset of tree species
common to the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP) in Puerto Rico that
represent a range of life-history strategies. We are fitting a series of
models to inventory data collected for the LFDP to examine: 1)
species-specific responses to storms and probability of survival following
an intense hurricane, 2) the importance of neighborhood (or competition)
on degree of damage and survival, 3) observer errors associated with
assessing hurricane damage, and 4) degree and range of spatial
autocorrelation in hurricane intensity. The Bayesian approach allows us to
easily couple temporal and spatial data on hurricane damage and survival,
resulting in a straight-forward analysis that can be easily implemented
for understanding the importance of disturbances such as hurricanes to
forest structure and composition.
Parviez Hosseini Questions of Scaling in Seasonality in
House Finch conjunctivitis Duncan Menge Modeling long-term ecosystem
development
As terrestrial ecosystems age, the resource limiting production often
changes. An example is a shift from nitrogen limitation on young soils to
phosphorus limitation on old, weathered soils, but other resources
(primarily light, carbon, and water) frequently limit growth as well, and
more complex dynamics have been observed. Well-studied age gradients have
inspired conceptual models for long-term ecosystem development, but no
simple mathematical models exist to rigorously describe the processes. We
here present a basic analytical framework with which to address ecosystem
dynamics, focusing first on nitrogen and phosphorus as potentially
limiting
resources. We begin with minimal biological control, but in the future
will
incorporate biological control (e.g. nitrogen fixation, denitrification,
differential allocation, etc.), as well as other potentially limiting
resources, into this framework.
Nancy Dammann Davis Living in the Edge: Community
Based Management of the Terrestrial Aquatic
Interface in the Peruvian Amazon
Community based management has been widely heralded as a successful
conservation tool even in highly dynamic, connected, and mobile systems
such
as the Amazon. Little rigorous effort has been made, however, to analyze
the
ecological effects of such efforts nor to place them in a regional or
landscape context. Given the length of the river (>6,400 km), the high
levels of biodiversity (150-300 tree spp/he), and the extremes of the
flooding regime (up to 20 meters annual variation), the Peruvian Amazon
presents one of the most dynamic contexts available in which to test these
ideas. I posit that community based management of the aquatic terrestrial
interface represents one human adaptation to increase stability and
resiliency of the system. In order test this hypothesis, I ask the
following three questions. When, under what circumstances, and in what
ways
do community based efforts to manage the terrestrial aquatic interface
lead
to positive ecological outcomes. What are the factors that drive community
based management decisions, and how can we understand these community
based
efforts and their effects (both social and ecological) when place them in
their landscape or regional context. Initial results, based on study of
the
community based management of the fisheries, found that community managed
floodplain lakes had slightly higher species richness (44 species/lake vs.
36), greater productivity (as represented by kilos caught per hour, 13.06
vs
7.9), and slightly larger average body sizes of the most commercially
valuable species. The presentation outlines initial findings regarding
both
the fishery and drivers of community decision making and proposes a plan
to
examine the effects of management on the broader interface area.
Heather Leslie Hotspots of barnacle
reproduction associated with nearshore ocean conditions
Coastal marine ecosystems provide important ecosystem services to human
populations worldwide. Understanding the contexts that generate 'good
habitats' (e.g. those where a given species has markedly higher
reproductive
output) is vital for effective management and conservation of these
valuable
and highly impacted systems. We documented reproductive hotspots, i.e.,
larval source sites, for an ecologically significant benthic marine
invertebrate, the barnacle Balanus glandula. Greater production of
offspring was associated with higher primary productivity in the adjacent
nearshore ocean in Oregon (USA). B. glandula has served as an
important
model species for marine ecologists for >100 years in part because its
life
history is similar to that of most marine species. Consequently, the
documentation of B. glandula reproductive hotspots is relevant to
broader
issues in marine conservation. Specifically, our results highlight the
importance of particular places in the marine environment, and provide a
mechanistic basis for evaluating the relative contributions of different
sites. Such differences in the ecological functioning of benthic habitats
reinforce the importance of network approaches when designing marine
reserves and other area-based management strategies.
Adi Livnat The Evolution of
Intergenerational Discounting: New directions for research
Intergenerational effects occur when an individual's actions affect not
only
its own survivorship and reproduction but also those of its offspring and
possibly later descendants. Many intergenerational effects exist and are
well documented. Interestingly, it follows from intergenerational effects
that some strategies are better in the short term and others are better in
the long term. What then do we expect to see in nature? Normally in life
history theory, people assume that long term measures of success are the
relevant ones. But that conclusion stems from work that was based on
phenotypic analysis and that did not include evolutionary dynamics. What
does it mean for an individual to invest in far future descendants, when
those descendants are necessarily going to carry traits different than
their
ancestor's, due to evolutionary change such as mutation, Mendelian
segregation, and recombination? We studied this with the help of
analytical
models and computer simulations. It turns out that the faster a trait
evolves, the less it will invest in future generations. One can think of
this as extending the inclusive fitness approach over the time dimension.
Our theoretical models demonstrate this result for the clutch size trait
as
well as for the total reproductive effort trait. We are now trying to
extend
the principle to dispersal, and I would very much like to get some
feedback
on that point. There are many other ways to extend the theoretical work
and,
importantly, there are ways in which it could be tested empirically.
Nikolay Strigul Stable social groups,
consumption and homophilous imitation behavior Social norms play a fundamental role in developing and maintaining
societal
structures. Using individual-based models, we consider two problems 1)
the
coexistence of stable social groups and 2) the role of social norms in
mediating human consumption patterns. In contrast with traditional
models of
social norms, we do not apply game theoretical approach and ignore
pay-offs.
In the consideration of the two-party coexistence problem, our results
are
based mostly on the recently published paper by Durrett and Levin
(2004). We
assume that individuals change their opinions based on their
similarity with
the other individuals (homophilous imitation). The symmetrical
structure of
interactions between individuals leads to random drift, but also to
the
development of stable social groups. The structure and dynamics of
stable
social groups in homogeneous and spatially-distributed societies are
investigated by means of statistical modeling and analytical
techniques.
Drew Purves Directed seed dispersal and
metapopulation dynamics: simple theory, a
Brazilian water hyacinth, and Spanish Oaks Seed dispersal is often directed toward locations with particular
characteristics, particularly where seeds are moved by animals. I
begin with
a simple extension of the classical Levins metapopulation model, that
includes directed dispersal, and see how this affects metapopulation
response to changes in habitat cover and disturbance rates. I then
apply
this simple model to the Brazilian water hyacinth Eichhornia
paniculata.
This suggests that directed dispersal from waterfowl is key for the
persistence of this species. Next, we're off to Sunny Spain, where
I've fit
a metapopulation model for the Oaks in Castile La Mancha, to survey
data.
This model includes a heterogeneous environment, local dispersal, and
directed dispersal reflecting non-random acorn movements by the
European
Jay. We can estimate the importance of local dispersal, and directed
dispersal, in determining current abundances, species-environment
correlations, and spatial structure. Finally, we can estimate the
potential
importance of directed dispersal for the species response to
perturbations,
using model simulations under altered habitat cover, drought length
and fire
frequency. These examples suggest that the behavior of seed-dispersing
animals may be a key factor determining the response of fragmented
plant
populations to anthropogenic disturbances.
Wednesday,
December 1 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
November 17 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
November 10 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
November 3 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
October 20 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
October 13 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
October 6 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
September 29 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
September 22 @ 2:30 PM
Wednesday,
September 15 @ 2:30 PM
Last updated 09/07/04
pulliam@princeton.edu