Theoretical Ecology Lab Tea

The Theoretical Ecology Lab Teas are designed to be informal meetings for members of the research groups of Simon Levin, Steve Pacala, Henry Horn, and Andy Dobson to give talks on their current research and receive feedback from their audience. The talks are usually 30 minutes, including the question and answer sessions, scheduled on Wednesdays at 2:30 PM. Additionally, other members of the Princeton University community and visitors are welcome to attend and to give presentations.

Talk schedules and email lists are maintained by Juliet Pulliam and Duncan Menge. Please contact pulliam@princeton.edu or dmenge@princeton.edu to have your name added to the labtea email list so that you can receive reminders about upcoming lab teas.

To view previous schedules and summaries, go to:
    Fall 2000     Spring 2001
    Fall 2001     Spring 2002
    Fall 2002     Spring 2003
    Fall 2003     Spring 2004
 


 

Fall 2004
 
 
Wednesday, September 15, at 2:30 PM
Drew Purves
Wednesday, September 22, at 2:30 PM
Nikolay Strigul
Wednesday, September 29, at 2:30 PM
Adi Livnat
Wednesday, October 6, at 2:30 PM
Heather Leslie
Wednesday, October 13, at 2:30 PM
Nancy Dammann Davis
Wednesday, October 20, at 2:30 PM
Duncan Menge
Wednesday, October 27, at 2:30 PM
(Fall break)
Wednesday, November 3, at 2:30 PM
Parviez Hosseini
Wednesday, November 10, at 2:30 PM
Kiona Ogle
Wednesday, November 17, at 2:30 PM
Juan Keymer
Wednesday, November 24, at 2:30 PM
(Thanksgiving break)
Wednesday, December 1, at 2:30 PM
Brian Fath - Towson University
Wednesday, December 8, at 2:30 PM
Michael Raghib-Moreno


Titles and abstracts
(posted approximately one week before the talk):


Wednesday, December 8 @ 2:30 PM

Michael Raghib-Moreno

An entropy approach to moment closure in spatial ecology

Nontrivial spatial structure in plant populations and other sessile organisms is commonly modelled via spatial point processes. The dynamics of such processes is summarized in terms of a family of statistics known in ecology as spatial moments. However, the density-dependent interaction terms in these models imply that the equation for the rate of change of the first moment (mean density) depends on the second moment (pair density), which in turn depends on the third moment, and so on. Further progress relies on obtaining an expression for the third moment in terms of the first and second ones, a moment closure. Given that the interactions used are typically pairwise additive, most of the information about the process is carried by the first and second order moments, with higher order ones contributing little. The idea of "carried information" is quantified by the entropy, and "contributing little" is approximated by the state of maximum entropy. We obtained a closure by maximisation of the entropy functional of the underlying point process under the constraints of normalisation and fixed first and second moments. The resulting closed system predicts equilibrium densities remarkably well for clustered populations, precisely where previous ad hoc closures show their limitations.

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Wednesday, December 1 @ 2:30 PM

Brian Fath

Network Mutualism: Positive community-level relations in ecosystems

Direct energy transfers in ecosystems create reticulated structures commonly called food webs. The relation or interaction type along each direct pathway between pair-wise objects can be classified as (+, -) or (-, +) depending on the net gain or loss experienced by each object. If objects are not directly connected in the food web, then their direct interaction is neutralism (0, 0). From this direct-only perspective, a balance exists between the number of positive and negative relations in the ecosystem. However, community-level relations arise from direct and indirect pathways within a food web giving rise to the indirectly mediated relations mutualism (+, +) and competition (-, -). Determination of these community-level relations requires a systemic or holistic approach. Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) provides such a methodology to investigate the relations resulting from the whole set of direct transfers. This research demonstrates the methodology and shows three important results from the analysis. First, all objects in the network are connected either through their input and output environs and therefore all objects influence and interact with the others in the web: There are no null community-level relations. Second, the community-level relations can and do differ from direct relations: What you see is not always what you get. Third, due to the web of systemic interactions, community-level relations usually have a greater occurrence of mutualism than competition making them more positive than the direct relations that produced them: This is the property called network mutualism.

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Wednesday, November 17 @ 2:30 PM

Juan Keymer

The Chemotaxis network

Molecular networks are responsable for the behavior of cell's. In the case of unicellulor organisms, molecular networks coordinate the behavior are their brains. E. Coli's chemotactic network is the best described molecular network. Molecular Biology is moving towards the dynamic modelling of such networks by building upon simple physical principles.

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Wednesday, November 10 @ 2:30 PM

Kiona Ogle

Bayesian analysis of vulnerability to hurricane damage and survival of tropical trees

Hurricanes are critical to tropical forest dynamics in Puerto Rico, which is characterized by the highest hurricane frequency of all Caribbean islands. To enhance out understanding of the dynamics of hurricane-driven forests, such as those in Puerto Rico, we are applying a Bayesian hierarchical approach to simultaneously estimate the factors that determine the degree of damage to an individual tree. Physiological tradeoffs generate a positive relationship between resistance to hurricane damage and shade tolerance, so we are focusing on a subset of tree species common to the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP) in Puerto Rico that represent a range of life-history strategies. We are fitting a series of models to inventory data collected for the LFDP to examine: 1) species-specific responses to storms and probability of survival following an intense hurricane, 2) the importance of neighborhood (or competition) on degree of damage and survival, 3) observer errors associated with assessing hurricane damage, and 4) degree and range of spatial autocorrelation in hurricane intensity. The Bayesian approach allows us to easily couple temporal and spatial data on hurricane damage and survival, resulting in a straight-forward analysis that can be easily implemented for understanding the importance of disturbances such as hurricanes to forest structure and composition.

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Wednesday, November 3 @ 2:30 PM

Parviez Hosseini

Questions of Scaling in Seasonality in House Finch conjunctivitis

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Wednesday, October 20 @ 2:30 PM

Duncan Menge

Modeling long-term ecosystem development

As terrestrial ecosystems age, the resource limiting production often changes. An example is a shift from nitrogen limitation on young soils to phosphorus limitation on old, weathered soils, but other resources (primarily light, carbon, and water) frequently limit growth as well, and more complex dynamics have been observed. Well-studied age gradients have inspired conceptual models for long-term ecosystem development, but no simple mathematical models exist to rigorously describe the processes. We here present a basic analytical framework with which to address ecosystem dynamics, focusing first on nitrogen and phosphorus as potentially limiting resources. We begin with minimal biological control, but in the future will incorporate biological control (e.g. nitrogen fixation, denitrification, differential allocation, etc.), as well as other potentially limiting resources, into this framework.

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Wednesday, October 13 @ 2:30 PM

Nancy Dammann Davis

Living in the Edge: Community Based Management of the Terrestrial Aquatic Interface in the Peruvian Amazon

Community based management has been widely heralded as a successful conservation tool even in highly dynamic, connected, and mobile systems such as the Amazon. Little rigorous effort has been made, however, to analyze the ecological effects of such efforts nor to place them in a regional or landscape context. Given the length of the river (>6,400 km), the high levels of biodiversity (150-300 tree spp/he), and the extremes of the flooding regime (up to 20 meters annual variation), the Peruvian Amazon presents one of the most dynamic contexts available in which to test these ideas. I posit that community based management of the aquatic terrestrial interface represents one human adaptation to increase stability and resiliency of the system. In order test this hypothesis, I ask the following three questions. When, under what circumstances, and in what ways do community based efforts to manage the terrestrial aquatic interface lead to positive ecological outcomes. What are the factors that drive community based management decisions, and how can we understand these community based efforts and their effects (both social and ecological) when place them in their landscape or regional context. Initial results, based on study of the community based management of the fisheries, found that community managed floodplain lakes had slightly higher species richness (44 species/lake vs. 36), greater productivity (as represented by kilos caught per hour, 13.06 vs 7.9), and slightly larger average body sizes of the most commercially valuable species. The presentation outlines initial findings regarding both the fishery and drivers of community decision making and proposes a plan to examine the effects of management on the broader interface area.

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Wednesday, October 6 @ 2:30 PM

Heather Leslie

Hotspots of barnacle reproduction associated with nearshore ocean conditions

Coastal marine ecosystems provide important ecosystem services to human populations worldwide. Understanding the contexts that generate 'good habitats' (e.g. those where a given species has markedly higher reproductive output) is vital for effective management and conservation of these valuable and highly impacted systems. We documented reproductive hotspots, i.e., larval source sites, for an ecologically significant benthic marine invertebrate, the barnacle Balanus glandula. Greater production of offspring was associated with higher primary productivity in the adjacent nearshore ocean in Oregon (USA). B. glandula has served as an important model species for marine ecologists for >100 years in part because its life history is similar to that of most marine species. Consequently, the documentation of B. glandula reproductive hotspots is relevant to broader issues in marine conservation. Specifically, our results highlight the importance of particular places in the marine environment, and provide a mechanistic basis for evaluating the relative contributions of different sites. Such differences in the ecological functioning of benthic habitats reinforce the importance of network approaches when designing marine reserves and other area-based management strategies.

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Wednesday, September 29 @ 2:30 PM

Adi Livnat

The Evolution of Intergenerational Discounting: New directions for research

Intergenerational effects occur when an individual's actions affect not only its own survivorship and reproduction but also those of its offspring and possibly later descendants. Many intergenerational effects exist and are well documented. Interestingly, it follows from intergenerational effects that some strategies are better in the short term and others are better in the long term. What then do we expect to see in nature? Normally in life history theory, people assume that long term measures of success are the relevant ones. But that conclusion stems from work that was based on phenotypic analysis and that did not include evolutionary dynamics. What does it mean for an individual to invest in far future descendants, when those descendants are necessarily going to carry traits different than their ancestor's, due to evolutionary change such as mutation, Mendelian segregation, and recombination? We studied this with the help of analytical models and computer simulations. It turns out that the faster a trait evolves, the less it will invest in future generations. One can think of this as extending the inclusive fitness approach over the time dimension. Our theoretical models demonstrate this result for the clutch size trait as well as for the total reproductive effort trait. We are now trying to extend the principle to dispersal, and I would very much like to get some feedback on that point. There are many other ways to extend the theoretical work and, importantly, there are ways in which it could be tested empirically.

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Wednesday, September 22 @ 2:30 PM

Nikolay Strigul

Stable social groups, consumption and homophilous imitation behavior

Social norms play a fundamental role in developing and maintaining societal structures. Using individual-based models, we consider two problems 1) the coexistence of stable social groups and 2) the role of social norms in mediating human consumption patterns. In contrast with traditional models of social norms, we do not apply game theoretical approach and ignore pay-offs. In the consideration of the two-party coexistence problem, our results are based mostly on the recently published paper by Durrett and Levin (2004). We assume that individuals change their opinions based on their similarity with the other individuals (homophilous imitation). The symmetrical structure of interactions between individuals leads to random drift, but also to the development of stable social groups. The structure and dynamics of stable social groups in homogeneous and spatially-distributed societies are investigated by means of statistical modeling and analytical techniques.

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Wednesday, September 15 @ 2:30 PM

Drew Purves

Directed seed dispersal and metapopulation dynamics: simple theory, a Brazilian water hyacinth, and Spanish Oaks

Seed dispersal is often directed toward locations with particular characteristics, particularly where seeds are moved by animals. I begin with a simple extension of the classical Levins metapopulation model, that includes directed dispersal, and see how this affects metapopulation response to changes in habitat cover and disturbance rates. I then apply this simple model to the Brazilian water hyacinth Eichhornia paniculata. This suggests that directed dispersal from waterfowl is key for the persistence of this species. Next, we're off to Sunny Spain, where I've fit a metapopulation model for the Oaks in Castile La Mancha, to survey data. This model includes a heterogeneous environment, local dispersal, and directed dispersal reflecting non-random acorn movements by the European Jay. We can estimate the importance of local dispersal, and directed dispersal, in determining current abundances, species-environment correlations, and spatial structure. Finally, we can estimate the potential importance of directed dispersal for the species response to perturbations, using model simulations under altered habitat cover, drought length and fire frequency. These examples suggest that the behavior of seed-dispersing animals may be a key factor determining the response of fragmented plant populations to anthropogenic disturbances.

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Last updated 09/07/04
pulliam@princeton.edu